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Home→Tags Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes

Tag Archives: Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes

June 2020 – Note on South Africa’s liquidity measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic

You Need Posted on 16/07/2020 by vrapto16/07/2020
Publish Date: 2020-07-16
Category: Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes
Author: JM Shikwane, AM de Beer and DH Meyer

​The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) introduced a range of measures to ease liquidity strains in domestic financial markets, similar to that of many other central banks globally, to cushion the economy against the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This note provides a brief overview of the recent liquidity measures that were implemented by the SARB, while also reflecting on changes to monetary policy operations3 since 2010. In addition, these measures are also contextualised relative to the absence of the need for such interventions during the 2007–09 global financial crisis (GFC). South Africa’s current financial market conditions reflect similarities to those experienced by other countries during the GFC, when central banks in developed economies introduced so-called unconventional monetary policies.

Attachments:
04Note on South Africa’s liquidity measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.pdf

Link full article: June 2020 – Note on South Africa’s liquidity measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic

Posted in South African News, South African Reserve bank | Tagged Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes

December 2019 – Note on the development of South Africa’s integrated economic accounts

You Need Posted on 13/12/2019 by vrapto13/12/2019
Publish Date: 2019-12-13
Category: Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes
Author: W Boonzaaier, E Botes, B de Beer, J Mokoena, C Monyela, B Stemmet and R Willemse

​The development of an integrated economic accounts (IEA) framework for the South African economy, which started in 2015, has progressed further. When completed, the IEA framework will extend the range of macroeconomic statistics available for policy formulation and contribute to the fulfilment of the Group of Twenty (G20) Data Gaps Initiatives (DGI) commitments, although some data gaps will remain.

 

Attachments:
03Note on the development of South Africa’s.pdf

Link full article: December 2019 – Note on the development of South Africa’s integrated economic accounts

Posted in South African News, South African Reserve bank | Tagged Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes

December 2019 – Note on the recent sharp increase in the unemployment rate

You Need Posted on 13/12/2019 by vrapto13/12/2019
Publish Date: 2019-12-13
Category: Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes
Author: A Bosch and J C Venter

​South Africa’s official unemployment rate increased notably to 29.0% in the second quarter of 2019 and further to 29.1% in the third quarter. These all-time highs since the inception of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) in 2008 attracted attention due to their magnitude and also because significant increases historically have tended to be a first-quarter phenomenon, such as in 2009, 2015 and 2016. First-quarter increases in the unemployment rate are not unusual, as many school leavers enter the labour market (i.e. start looking for employment for the first time) at the beginning of the year, unlike in the second quarter when less seasonality is present.

In the case of the three previous first-quarter examples and in the second quarter of 2019, the notable increase in the number of unemployed people was accompanied by a decrease in the not economically active population. However, the composition of the recent second-quarter decrease in the not economically active population differs as the decreases in the previous periods resulted mostly from a decline in the student category while the decrease in the second quarter of 2019 was mostly due to a decline in the number of discouraged work seekers. In the third quarter of 2019, the number of unemployed persons increased further while the number of discouraged work seekers increased only slightly, leading to a further marginal increase in the unemployment rate.

This analysis will show that this anomaly could be ascribed to various developments. In the case of possible data and sampling methodology issues, an analysis of the QLFS micro-data shows that the characteristics of the sampled survey participants remained stable and, together with Stats SA’s rotating panel methodology, ruled out obvious sampling or methodological changes.

A plausible explanation for the sudden and sharp increase in the unemployment rate could also be the national elections that took place in the second quarter of 2019 (8 May). Temporary jobs at the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), together with election campaign-related promises of job creation, could have created optimism which enticed discouraged work seekers to actively search for work. Should this have been the case, the unemployment rate might recede somewhat during the remainder of 2019 when the unemployed again become discouraged work seekers.

However, it could also be that the substantial increase in the unemployment rate, as surveyed in the second quarter of 2019, reflects the continuation of an upward trajectory over the past few years consistent with weak economic growth, subdued fixed investment and employment creation, as well as the prolonged downward phase of the business cycle.

The accuracy of the official unemployment rate is corroborated by the absence of material differences when it is compared with a counterfactual unemployment rate that hypothetically assumed no increases in the new entrants, re-entrants or ‘other’ unemployed categories while retaining the observed increases in the job losers and job leavers categories in the second and third quarters of 2019.

 

Attachments:
04Note on the recent sharp increase in the unemployment rate.pdf

Link full article: December 2019 – Note on the recent sharp increase in the unemployment rate

Posted in South African News, South African Reserve bank | Tagged Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes

December 2018 – Note on the progress in developing South Africa’s integrated economic accounts

You Need Posted on 14/12/2018 by vrapto14/12/2018
Publish Date: 2018-12-14
Category: Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes
Author: B de Beer, J Mokoena and H Wagner

The South Reserve Bank (SARB) has been developing an integrated economic accounts (IEA) statistical framework for the South African economy since 2015. These macroeconomic statistics will address some of the data gaps identified by the Group of Twenty (G20)3 Data Gaps Initiatives (DGI). This note illustrates progress made with the balance sheet (non-financial assets and financial assets and liabilities) as well as the accumulation accounts – as represented by the shaded areas in Figure 1.

Attachments:
03Note on the progress in developing South.pdf

Link full article: December 2018 – Note on the progress in developing South Africa’s integrated economic accounts

Posted in South African News, South African Reserve bank | Tagged Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes

September 2017 – Note on the output of the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector

You Need Posted on 14/09/2017 by vrapto14/09/2017
Publish Date: 2017-09-14
Category: Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes
Author: E Botes and K Kuhn
The largest sector in the South African economy – the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector – contributed 20.2% to nominal output in 2016 and 29.4% to the output of the tertiary sector. In 2016, the latter contributed 68.6% to the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) while the finance and insurance subsector accounted for just less than half
of the nominal output of finance, insurance, real estate and business services. Commercial banks contributed most to the output of the finance and insurance subsector, with financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM)2 constituting the largest portion of the total output of commercial banks. This note analyses the recent changes in real output and the relative contribution of the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector to real output in the South African economy. It also describes the methodology applied to measure the output of commercial banks.

This note analyses the recent changes in real output and the relative contribution of the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector to real output in the South African economy. It also describes the methodology applied to measure the output of commercial banks.

 

Attachments:
03Note on the output of the finance, insurance,real estate and business services sector.pdf

Link full article: September 2017 – Note on the output of the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector

Posted in South African News, South African Reserve bank | Tagged Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes

June 2017 – Note on the flow of funds in South Africa’s national financial account for the year 2016

You Need Posted on 20/06/2017 by vrapto20/06/2017
Publish Date: 2017-06-20
Category: Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes
Author: C Monyela and S Madonsela

​The nominal value of financial flows in the South African economy declined in 2016, in step with weak gross domestic product (GDP) and income growth, tight credit conditions and subdued business and consumer confidence. Inflows from the foreign sector also decreased in 2016. A decline in equity inflows reflected the effect of generally accommodative global monetary policy in advanced economies whereas the concomitant search for yield supported inflows in the bond market. These inflows were sufficient to offset the overall domestic saving investment gap. This note presents a brief overview of trends in the 2016 flow of funds, captured through real and financial transactions amongst all institutional sectors. The quarterly flow of funds accounts are appended to this note and the annual summary appears on pages S–46 to S–47 of this issue of the Quarterly Bulletin.

Attachments:
03Note on the flow of funds in South Africa’s national financial account for the year 2016.pdf

Link full article: June 2017 – Note on the flow of funds in South Africa’s national financial account for the year 2016

Posted in South African News, South African Reserve bank | Tagged Quarterly Bulletins Articles and Notes
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